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Marvel's lost market share to DC in 2016 - Black Octopus Team Report

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There has been a lot of talk about Marvel losing sales to DC.  Marvel has been doing a variety of things with their comic line that have caused controversy recently.  Fans of either side of these issues have been very passionate   Rather than debate we decided to sort out the facts of what is happening and look at sales data.  The data used was from Chomiccron.com which houses comic sales data of all the Diamond Distributor retailers going back for many years.  We then tasked the Toylab data team aka The Black Octopus team with analyzing the data.

We wanted Facts and.... we got them!

Update: 4/4/2017 -Marvel Day of Rage
Holy Crap Marvel is a complete PR disaster right now.  Watching them talk to both retailers, fans and their creators reactions on twitter is like watching the Hindenburg go up.

This day's news from Marvel has been so epic that I feel like it needs its own name, maybe "The Marvel Day of Rage".

Honestly there is so much stuff going on right now where does one begin.

First, Marvel has acknowledged that its sales have fallen very low.  Unfortunately, how they said this was very poorly done.  In an interview with ICv2 (geek blog) David Gabriel VP of Marvel Sales was quoted as explaining Marvel's sales slump:

“What we heard was that people didn't want any more diversity,...They didn't want female characters out there. That's what we heard, whether we believe that or not ... We saw the sales of any character that was diverse, any character that was new, our female characters, anything that was not a core Marvel character, people were turning their nose up against. That was difficult for us because we had a lot of fresh, new, exciting ideas that we were trying to get out and nothing new really worked.”

He then talked about how the Publisher is going to react to the sales slump by saying:

“After looking at everything that was going on, we knew that we had to make some changes and we couldn't do anything the next month. We had to wait six months before things could start taking place. That's sort of what we're getting to now.”

That statement may not seem so bad at first but it went off like an A-Bomb.  Interestingly this comment pissed every person off.  It pissed off people including retailers and comic fans who were not buying Marvel comics (Because they have sucked recently) by basically calling them bigots and racists.  It also pissed off people who want more diversity in comics and see that Marvel is moving away from that because of money.  Fortune magazine that same day published an ill timed piece about how well Marvel's diversity push was going.  Likely should have published that a year ago.
The comment also pissed off critics of Marvel who are tired of the company blaming everyone else for their problems.
Honestly, I am ok with Marvel or DC making comments that piss people off.  Anyone who has been a fan of comics knows its really easy to piss off one segment of fans.  I am still amazed though that they managed to piss off everyone.  That takes some real Anti- PR skills.

Gabriel walked back his statements some by saying that some new diverse characters have been popular and that of course they would all continue to exist but more focus would be going to core characters.  This would likely have been the smarter statement to come out with initially.

Then......Yes this crap just keeps going.

A few of the creators have accused the comic blogs like the Nerdist for going after them unfairly with click bait articles.  In some sense I agree with that.  Yes some blogs do have click bait style articles but guess what so does all of media right now.  However, everybody knows the rule .... don't feed the trolls.  I have been sitting back, reading and just shaking my head.  I love Marvel but this is getting embarrassing.

Alex Alonso complains that without Wizard artists no longer move the needle on sales.  This made a bunch of artists and fans of artists mad.  Various artists rush to his defense on Twitter this of course does not help.

Then Nick Spencer starts writing on twitter because he thinks he is a political genius. He tried to defend Alonso's comment about "Artists no longer moving the needle" and then just descended into a tirade.
 He starts attacking a critic from Nerdist and also takes some swipes at DC (Just because).  Last I checked he was still tweeting back and forth with trolls.

Marvel get control of yourselves.  You make fun of Trump and his twitter shenanigans but look who is talking.

On one hand you decry the loss of Wizard Magazine a fan outlet while in the same breadth bashing the massive replacement in Fan Blogs and Media.  Yes, that community including this site will publish click bait but what the heck do you want us to say?   I and a whole slew of other sites also publish posts that highlight artists.   Do you want us to write articles that its ok your comics don't sell because they are soooooo brilliant and fans just don't understand your brilliance?  What do you want from us?

The reality is that you laid an egg in 2016.  A bad year is not uncommon among sports teams or businesses.  However, the real question is,  How will you deal with that set back? How will you make adjustments that determine your future.  Dealing with a loss, any loss, by pointing fingers and blaming people is never, never the way to right the ship toward success.

I'm still rooting for you Marvel, don't let me down.  Stop being so defensive though.  A lot of people love your characters and are passionate about those characters that is a strength of your brand and not a weakness.



Update: 2/6/2017
Marvel sales have continued on a tragically downward spiral.  Meanwhile major retailers have begun issuing public letters imploring Marvel to tone down its politics and return to storytelling.  The total rejection of the hyper political story telling in Civil War 2 is being cited as a major cause of the events sales woes.  The other major reason is the lack of original characters left in their books.

Bleeding Cool is reporting that the Marvel recently finished a summit where they will radically alter course.  Apparently, a major talking point at the summit is what DC was doing with Rebirth as to what they were doing.  The plan after the summit was for original characters to return.    "Marvel brings back the X-Men line with a bang, to expect a return to more of a status quo for titles such as Thor, Iron Man, Hulk and more. A more familiar looking Marvel Universe by the autumn – although, just as with Captain America, as classic-look-characters return, expect new characters to keep a number of their books."

While the company is planning on going on less political tangent it seems they are still locked into the Secret Empire story line. A story line that has already created great lamentation and groans among the fan base. However the story is too far along for them to change course now.

My opinion on all of this:

Sounds great!

I like a lot of the new characters and I am fine with them staying. If the company could keep some of its original characters around though that would be great TOO. Also I think its fine to get political from time to time however the problem with writers like Nick Spencer is that its all they do. Right now the world is full of heated political debate everywhere and I think one reason people buy comics is for escapism or at least to explore things in a different way. Getting a barrage of politics on the comic shelf is a good way to keep people out of comic book stores (Which is exactly what has been happening).   I think there is plenty of room for political discourse and certainly for criticism for things going on but pick your places.  If your characters are vomiting out political talking points with every issue you have turned your comic into a propagandist rag.  Ain't nobody got time for that!  Calm down, and pick your spots and above all....ENTERTAIN ME!!!!!!!!!!

THAT IS WHY I AM HERE! ENTERTAIN ME!

Believe it or not most comic readers are smart, read a lot, and already have political opinions. and believe it or not most of us get real political news from "gasp" other sources?  Whether it be from a News or "Fake News" source.  I really don't think comic book fans need and or want a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th regurgitation of the hot political item of the day.  They especially don't want it from a comic book.  We don't need to be propagandized to and we know it when your doing it.

Will the shift be enough to stop the surging DC Rebirth? Only time will tell.

I am super excited for the following things; X-Men returning! and Thor returning!  I should also note that to my knowledge no changes have been announced for Wolverine (Likely continue to be Old Man Logan) and the Fantastic Four (I actually have no idea where they are).

I hope they keep these new characters going Ms Marvel, Moon Girl, Miles Morales and Kei Kawade. Honestly though I am not a big fan of Riri Williams to me she is a complete Mary Sue.  Also I have grown pretty tired of the Spiderverse characters like Spider-Gwen too. Outside of Miles I think its time to rest them.  I would also like to see a return of single solid Guardians of the Galaxy tile instead of 50 crappy ones.  That is all just my opinion though and I was not at the summit so we will all have to follow along and see what the company does.  Who knows maybe the Secret Empire will do great and they will change gears again and go hyper political.

Also one more thing Marvel, your books are getting pricey.  Just a thought but you may need to look at that.


What is the Black Octopus Team
Toylab has built up a group of our bloggers who happen to be data and marketing analyst wizards.  They routinely go out into the market place and analyze data to find trends.  If you find the Black Octopus team finding interesting or want to join the team you can subscribe to their newsletter on the bottom of the page.



The Top 20 Comics Sales Study:
The Black Octopus Team analyzed November Sales on a unit sales basis.   The team decided to focus on the Top 20 sold books as these tend to be the biggest indicator of sales for each company.  These are the 20 books that comic community is focusing on in a given month.  The Black Octopus team found that Marvel had lost significant market share in this group over the past 5 years.

While it is hard to say that a trend is forming the team did conclude that 2016 marked a low point for Marvel over the 5 year period of analyzed data.  While Marvel is still selling well it clearly is not dominating the market place as it has done in years past.  In every metric tested DC has risen in to the leading position.  This is significant because Marvel had led all categories tested in the previous years and typically by a wide margin.


2016 Ugly Marvel Milestones
Marvel Milestones in the 2016 period were all negative.
  • Lowest Sales - Over the period analyzed 2016 marked Marvel's lowest unit sales.  
  • Lowest Market Share Position -This was the first November of the 5 period where Marvel had lower market share of the top 20 than DC.
  • Lowest # of Top 20 Titles - The number of Marvel titles in the top 20 hit a low point of 8.  The previous low point was 2013 at 9.  In 2015, Marvel had 17 Top 20 tiles meaning that the year over year drop in this category was 9 titles.

2016 Beautiful DC Milestones
DC Milestones in the 2016 period were all positive.

  • Highest Sales - Over period analyzed 2016 marked highest unit sales by DC.
  • Highest Market Share Position - First November over period where DC had higher market share than Marvel.
  • Highest number of Top 20 Titles - DC reached a peak of 10 Top 20 Titles over the period analyzed

Note: Overall units sold were on the low side but not too much below average indicating that DC is picking up at least part of the sales that Marvel is losing.  There does appear to be a significant decline in sales from 2015 showing that some sales are being lost from the comic industry as whole.


Percentage of units sold in the top 20 by Marvel vs DC.

Marvel has lost significant market share of the top 20 books sold in 2016.


Marvel held a major lead in this category through the 5 year period right up until 2016.  Marvel's biggest lead was in 2015 which coincided with Secret Wars and major Star Wars books that helped the company completely dominate the top 20.  In 2016, DC greatly climbed and Marvel shrunk to its lowest point.


Unit Sales:
DC hit a high of 867k units sold in the Top 20 titles while as Marvel hit a low of 712k units sold.  2016 marked the highest point for DC and lowest point for Marvel.  Marvel had over a million in sales in the top 20 for 3 of the 5 years analyzed.  DC has by far its highest sales in 2016 but did not crack the 1 million mark in any of the 5 years analyzed.



Number of Titles in Top 20:
Marvel reached a dramatic peak in having 17 of the top 20 comics in Nov of 2015.  In Nov 2016 the company's fortunes have dramatically inversesd with its lowest showing in the period analyzed of 8.

DC had been sliding downward on this scale while hitting a low in 2015.  This trend was reversed in 2016 with the company's highest showing of 10 titles in the Top 20.




Why has Marvel lost market share?

There have been a few reasons cited for the loss of market share and they include:

1)  The Inhumans Agenda  - There has been a major pushing out characters that Marvel does not own film rights to.  This includes the Fantastic Four, and the X-Men some of the biggest flagships Marvel has traditionally had.

2) Diversity Agenda - Replacement of major characters with other characters to increase diversity.  To many this is a good thing or even a necessary change to update the universe with modern times.   However this combined with the Inhumans Agenda has definetly added to instability.  There is a list below of popular classic characters and 1 +2 have made it impossible to find current comics with them in it.

3) Seasonal Event format- Marvel has begun rebooting its universe multiple times a year  and even equating it to the seasons of a TV program.  The seasonal format is meant to hype titles with each "season" theme but some fans say it leads to fatigue and feeling that stories are gimmiks.  This has also made continuity a total mess to explain.
Many Marvel fans tell me they are enjoying series that are outside of the events like Black Panther.

4) DC Rebirth - DC rebooted its universe from the New 52 and into DC Rebirth.  During Rebirth the company changed a number of items that had given its fans consternation, DC managed to keep some of the aspects from New 52 that had been popular, while merging it with some classic DC elements.  These moves have generally been met with positive acclaim at both Comic Conventions and in stores.  While Rebirth is effecting the numbers in this analysis it should also be noted that Rebirth began in May and its new #1s are not effecting the November numbers. In fact none of the DC titles featured a number #1 in Novemeber.  Marvel though benefited from the release of #1s and 6 of its 8 titles were #1.  Comic Fans tend to buy more #1 of a title than they do of other numbers and it should disturb Marvel that its poor showing would have likely been even poorer if it had not released so many #1 titles.  Another disturbing feature of Marvel sales is that Amazing Spider-Man: Renew Your Vows, Unworthy Thor, IVX and Civil War II are not ongoing titles.  Also the current Amazing Spider-Man event the Clone Conspiracy was able to crack the top 20 when normally Spider-Man event sales are in the top 10.  DC numbers from the past 2 months not analyzed were even more dominating than the November numbers.

Which of these did it?
We do not have any empirical evidence of which of these reasons are driving sales lower for Marvel but it seems likely that all of these in conjunction  are weighing down sales.  Generally, Marvel feels complicated, and unstable it is hard to invest in storyline and characters when they are going to disappear completely in a couple of months.  All the items above have increased this instability.

The drive to increase diversity at Marvel has often been cited as a positive reason for previous years sales growth.   Characters from different backgrounds have increased the types of stories Marvel can tell and appeal to a wider base of individuals.   However, the company has seemingly hit an inflection point where it no longer has any of the traditional characters left.  This has left many longtime fans of the company feeling disillusioned.  It has also made it harder for new fans to walk in and buy the book they want.  Numerous retailers have complained that children are coming to stores hoping to buy a book of their favorite hero and are not finding them on the shelf.

To illustrate how far Marvel has gone in changing characters consider that right now in Marvel:
  • Thor - Is not Thor
  • Iron Man - Is not Tony Stark
  • Hulk - Is not Bruce Banner
  • Spider-Man - Is Peter Parker in some titles but not all
  • Captain America - Is not Steve Rogers
  • Vision - Is not the Vision
  • Wolverine - Is not Logan
  • Fantastic Four - Are dead or something who knows anymore
  • Ghost Rider- Is not Johnny Blaze
  • X-Men - Are a confusing mess
  • Hawkeye - Is not Clint Barton
It should be noted that changes to characters has not been restricted to white characters:

  • Falcon - Is not Sam Wilson
  • War Machine - Is dead
  • Shurri - Has been dead, but recently resurrected
  • Brother Voodoo - Dead twice but also brought back



Any one of those changes alone is not a problem but consider when all of these are done at once.  Its literal chaos.  These characters and their stories are what Marvel sells, they are the company's bread and butter and they are not on shelves right now.

If a person came to the comic book store hoping to buy a comic about the heroes they see in film or from cartoons they would find themselves completely and utterly lost.  While doing some of these changes can be good, doing it all once has made Marvel books unrecognizable.  The whole sale change feels forced and agenda driven.  Even fans that were for increasing diversity have begun to buy DC comics in the hopes of finding more stability.

I do not take this data to mean that Marvel should give up on stories with diverse characters.
Marvel has successfully done numerous books recently with diverse characters that include Black Panther's phenomenal series a Nation Under Our Feet, and also Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur.  These series have sold well and have also earned the company critical acclaim.  One thing to note though is that these series are not replacements of original characters.

The company has also had great success with Kamala Khan and her mantle of Ms Marvel.  While Kamala did replace Carol Danvers, Carol herself moved on to a different mantle of Captain Marvel. This has not been the case when other characters are replaced.  In some cases the replacements have rendered the old characters dead, missing, old, evil or otherwise unrecognizable.

While the company should be commended for increasing the diversity of its characters in order to maintain sales I think they will need to find a way to achieve better balance.  Getting rid of all the classic characters does not seem feasible  over the long-term status quo.  Marvel needs to find a sense of balance.

One thing Marvel really needs to think about is where should a new reader start.  The continuity escapades of a character like Steve Rogers are a complete and total mess.  I could explain 40 years of Captain America  history better than I could explain his last 5.  Moreover, Marvel's .1s that are supposedly been designed for new readers are not good at explaining anything.  They are seen by Marvel fans as cash grabs, because they are.

There is a bright spot on the horizon for Marvel is that in January they will be launching a new event called Monsters Unleashed that really looks exciting and may help them revive themselves.  It should worry Marvel some though that there are no plans for any of the major pillar characters to star in the series.



Data:
Here are the Top 20s going back through 2012:
You can find this data at: http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales.html


2016
Comic-book TitleIssuePricePublisherEst. sales
1Batman10$2.99 DC120,901
2Batman11$2.99 DC116,690
3Civil War II7$4.99 Marvel116,447
4All Star Batman4$4.99 DC99,064
5Invincible Iron Man1$3.99 Marvel97,713
6Amazing Spider-Man Renew Your Vows1$4.99 Marvel96,111
7Batman Annual1$4.99 DC91,033
8Venom1$3.99 Marvel90,138
9Walking Dead160$2.99 Image88,367
10IVX0$4.99 Marvel84,181
11Avengers1$4.99 Marvel81,885
12Justice League8$2.99 DC80,696
13Justice League9$2.99 DC77,905
14Batman TMNT Adventures1*$3.99 IDW75,974
15Star Wars25$4.99 Marvel75,234
16Detective Comics944$2.99 DC71,923
17Flash10$2.99 DC70,681
18Unworthy Thor1$3.99 Marvel70,424
19Detective Comics945$2.99 DC69,942
20Flash11$2.99 DC68,304
2015
Comic-book TitleIssuePricePublisherEst. sales
1Dark Knight III Master Race1$5.99 DC440,234
2Star Wars Vader Down1$4.99 Marvel384,969
3Deadpool1$4.99 Marvel180,565
4Secret Wars7$3.99 Marvel177,019
5Extraordinary X-Men1$4.99 Marvel133,716
6All New All Different Avengers1$4.99 Marvel128,570
7Star Wars11$3.99 Marvel126,780
8Uncanny X-Men600$5.99 Marvel126,447
9Star Wars12$3.99 Marvel123,133
10All New Wolverine1$4.99 Marvel119,786
11Darth Vader13$3.99 Marvel113,448
12Mighty Thor1$4.99 Marvel112,053
13Batman46$3.99 DC106,989
14Amazing Spider-Man3$3.99 Marvel93,848
15Deadpool2$3.99 Marvel92,008
16Darth Vader12$3.99 Marvel90,077
17Batman Europa1$4.99 DC80,721
18Ms. Marvel1$4.99 Marvel79,222
19Carnage1$3.99 Marvel69,773
20All New Hawkeye1$3.99 Marvel68,933
2014
Comic-book TitleIssuePricePublisherEst. sales
1Amazing Spider-Man9$4.99 Marvel135,280
2All New Captain America1$3.99 Marvel120,500
3Batman36$3.99 DC115,183
4Amazing Spider-Man10$3.99 Marvel100,899
5Spider-Woman1$3.99 Marvel93,723
6Thor2$3.99 Marvel89,131
7Superior Iron Man1$3.99 Marvel83,994
8Avengers and X-Men Axis4$3.99 Marvel79,068
9Avengers and X-Men Axis5$3.99 Marvel74,928
10Justice League36$3.99 DC74,796
11Avengers and X-Men Axis6$3.99 Marvel73,824
12Harley Quinn12$2.99 DC71,245
13Spider-Verse1$4.99 Marvel71,232
14Walking Dead134$2.99 Image68,093
15Superman Unchained9$4.99 DC65,478
16Guardians of Galaxy21$3.99 Marvel62,387
17Captain America and Mighty Avengers1$3.99 Marvel60,206
18Wonder Woman36$2.99 DC58,965
19Wytches2*$2.99 Image58,345
20Detective Comics36$3.99 DC58,171
2013
Comic-book TitleIssuePricePublisherEst. sales
1Batman25$4.99 DC125,602
2Harley Quinn0$2.99 DC114,212
3Amazing X-Men1$3.99 Marvel112,337
4Superman Unchained4$3.99 DC110,611
5Forever Evil3$3.99 DC105,755
6Infinity6$5.99 Marvel100,292
7All New X-Men18$3.99 Marvel82,365
8Superior Spider-Man22$3.99 Marvel81,250
9Batman Superman5$3.99 DC77,198
10Superior Spider-Man21$3.99 Marvel74,940
11All New X-Men19$3.99 Marvel71,044
12Justice League of America9$3.99 DC71,008
13Walking Dead116$2.99 Image69,913
14Walking Dead117$2.99 Image68,818
15Avengers23$3.99 Marvel66,501
16Uncanny X-Men14$3.99 Marvel65,655
17Detective Comics25$3.99 DC64,392
18Superior Spider-Man Annual1$4.99 Marvel63,595
19Uncanny Avengers14$3.99 Marvel60,750
20Superman Wonder Woman2$3.99 DC60,185
2012
Comic-book TitleIssuePricePublisherEst. sales
1All New X-Men1$3.99 Marvel181,693
2Batman14$3.99 DC159,729
3Captain America1$3.99 Marvel123,667
4Deadpool1$2.99 Marvel118,976
5Indestructible Hulk1$3.99 Marvel118,200
6Iron Man1$3.99 Marvel116,529
7Fantastic Four1$2.99 Marvel114,532
8Uncanny Avengers2$3.99 Marvel114,257
9Justice League14$3.99 DC113,094
10Thor God of Thunder1$3.99 Marvel110,443
11All New X-Men2$3.99 Marvel96,436
12X-Men Legacy1$2.99 Marvel87,081
13Amazing Spider-Man698$3.99 Marvel81,342
14FF1$2.99 Marvel80,701
15My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic1$3.99 IDW80,128
16Green Lantern14$2.99 DC78,499
17Batgirl14$2.99 DC77,468
18Batman And Robin14$2.99 DC75,543
19Detective Comics14$3.99 DC74,560
20Iron Man2$3.99 Marvel72,902



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